Indian rupee fell further against the US dollar on Monday following risk aversion due to Egypt crisis. In the interbank market, spot USDINR rose till 46.00 to finally close at 45.90. On MCXSX, the USDINR futures for February expiry settled the day at 46.1350, up 14paisa. The pair earlier posted an intraday high of 46.2275.
| Symbol | Expiry | Open | High | Low | Close | Chg | % Chg | Volume | OI |
| USDINR | Feb | 46.1000 | 46.2275 | 46.1000 | 46.1350 | 0.1425 | 0.3098 | 3,739,377 | 602,698 |
| EURINR | Feb | 62.7500 | 62.9875 | 62.6500 | 62.9175 | -0.1325 | -0.2102 | 92,692 | 39,055 |
| GBPINR | Feb | 72.9900 | 73.2900 | 72.9900 | 73.2475 | 0.3275 | 0.4491 | 13,333 | 17,473 |
| JPYINR | Feb | 56.1525 | 56.2625 | 56.0250 | 56.0575 | 0.5075 | 0.9136 | 17,702 | 14,609 |
The rupee was pressurized by declines in local stock market. The BSE Sensex on Monday shed 0.4 per cent leading to a 10.63 per cent fall in January; it’s lowest since October 2008. FII have pulled out over Rs 8,900 crore ($ 1.95 billion) from Indian equities in January in contrast with a record $29.3 billion they pumped in last year.
In the local debt market, federal bond yields rose while the OIS curve flattened as short-end rates shot up on worries over tight cash conditions. The yield on the most-traded 8.13 %, 2022 bond closed at 8.17 %, up 1 basis point from its previous close, while the second most traded 7.17 %, 2015 bond yield closed up 5 bps at 8.13 %.
In cross pairs, the EURINR opened lower but witnessed mild recovery tracking gains in the EURUSD. The EURINR Feb contract closed the day off 13 paisa at 62.91. The pair fell to a low of 62.65 during the morning session. The GBPINR gained tracking USDINR gains along with modest recovery of GBPUSD. The cross pair for Feb expiry closed the day at 73.2475, up 32 paisa or 0.32%.
In the global market, the Euro rose against the US dollar on expectations of hawkish stand by the ECB. The euro rose as high as $1.3740 just near to last week's two-month peak of $1.3760. It last traded at $1.3718, up 0.2 % on the day. The EURUSD is currently trading above 1.37 levels in the Asian session. As per yesterday’s data, consumer prices in the Euro zone rose 2.4 % year-on-year, holding above the ECB's target of just below 2 % for the second month. The data helped to lift the three-month Euribor rate to 1.074 %, its highest since July 2009. The single currency's rebound has also helped the British pound, which has additionally been boosted by expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of England. The GBPUSD is currently trading above the recent high of 1.6059. The GBPUSD recovered from of 1.5821 to 1.6049 yesterday.
USDINR Feb: The market has opened lower on decline in the US dollar in the overseas market. The market is taking support at the 46.00 levels and below that selling pressure can be witnessed. The resistance is seen at 46.12 and then 46.23 levels. We recommend selling on a pullback towards the immediate resistance levels with stop loss above the 46.23 levels.
EURINR Feb: The Euro looks positive against the Indian rupee while gains may be limited on weak USDINR. The EURUSD has resistance at 1.3760, above that market may advance towards 1.39 levels. The EURINR has opened firm and currently above the 63.00 levels. The support for the day is seen at 62.95-63.00 and sustained trading above the same should keep higher for the day. The resistance is seen at 63.24 and then 63.40. We recommend buying on dips for the day.
GBPINR Feb: The pound is expected to trade firm with support at the 72.45-50 range and any dip towards the same is ideal for buying for the day. The resistance is seen at 73.90-73.95.
Economic data for the day
| Currency | Event | GMT | CONSENSUS | PREVIOUS |
| EUR | EUR Producer Prices (MoM) (DEC) | 07:45 | 0.60% | 0.40% |
| EUR | EUR Producer Prices (YoY) (DEC) | 07:45 | 5.00% | 4.50% |
| EUR | EUR German Unemployment Rate (s.a) (JAN) | 08:55 | 7.50% | 7.50% |
| EUR | EUR German Unemployment Change | 08:55 | -10K | 3K |
| EUR | EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. | 08:55 | 7.50% | 7.50% |
| EUR | EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | 08:55 | 60.20 | 60.20 |
| EUR | EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (SA) | 09:00 | 8.70% | 8.70% |
| EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | 09:00 | 56.90 | 56.90 |
| GBP | GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | 09:30 | 58.00 | 58.30 |
| GBP | GBP M4 Exclduing OFCs (3M ) (YoY) | 09:30 | 3.50% | |
| GBP | GBP Net Consumer Credit | 09:30 | 0.0B | -0.1B |
| EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate | 10:00 | 10.10% | 10.10% |
| USD | USD Construction Spending (MoM) | 15:00 | 0.10% | 0.40% |
| USD | USD ISM Manufacturing | 15:00 | 57.90 | 57.00 |
| USD | USD ISM Prices Paid | 15:00 | 73.50 | 72.50 |
| USD | USD ABC Consumer Confidence (JAN 30) | 22:00 | ||
| USD | USD Domestic Vehicle Sales | 22:00 | 9.60M | 9.46M |
| USD | USD Total Vehicle Sales | 22:00 | 12.70M | 12.53M |
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