Friday, November 26, 2010

MOIL IPO : Apply at cut off price

MOIL Limited (formerly Manganese Ore India Limited) or “MOIL” is a government owned company and the largest producer of manganese ore by volume in India (Source: Indian Bureau of Mines, Indian Mineral Yearbook 2008) and accounts for about 50% of country’s manganese ore production. The company plans to raise around Rs 1240 Crore through its Initial Public Issue, the issue which will open for subscription on November 26, 2010 and close on December 01, 2010.

At the upper price band of Rs 375 MOIL is trading at a P/E multiple of 13.5X and 9.5X as against its FY 10 EPS of Rs 27.7 and fully annualized FY 11 EPS of Rs 39.5. This coupled with superior Operating and Bottom-line margins of the company, significant cumulative cash resources which on a per share basis comes out to be Rs 105, large scale of its business and zero debt position; creates a very healthy scenario for the future growth potential of the company. Moreover, Retail investors are offered a discount of 5% on the discovered price; we recommend, to Apply for the Issue at “Cut-Off” Price.

Share market updates : Nifty support levels

The NSE Nifty is expected to show a slow start due to the lack of conviction. The Critical Support level for the day is at the 100 DMA level of 5767 and today’s closing should be above this mark for maintaining the Short-term uptrend. During the course of the day, if it stays above this level, it will try to Target its first Resistance at 5816. The index should sustain above this level for triggering a Short-covering rally, wherein which it may Target towards the Major Resistance at 5874. However, if Nifty fail to sustain above its Critical Support, more Short positions may emerge which may drag the index towards its first Support at 5740 and later towards the Major Support at 5705.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Share market updates

Key US stock indices displayed substantial strength on Wednesday in a broad based advance mainly triggered by an unexpectedly huge drop in Unemployment claims signaling some revival in the labor market. Stock markets in Asia are trading positively on Thursday.

Post the late session selling in trade yesterday led by the loan scam against some public and private financial and real estate companies; the domestic bourses are expected to take a breather in today’s trade. In the NSE Nifty, the Critical level for uptrend is 5880 and above this we may see some confidence coming back to the market. However, momentum can prolong only if it sustain above the first Resistance at 5936. Amidst the rollover volatility, if the index stays above 5936 it can target the Major Resistance at 5977. On the flip side, if Nifty is unable to sustain above Critical, it may trigger further downtick towards the first Support at 5836. Lower to this, markets might get Strong Support at 5816.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Currency market update

USDINR Nov: The resistance for the day is seen at 45.75 levels from where some softening can be seen. However, support of 45.45 may keep market on a firm note. Avoid aggressive longs at higher levels
EURINR Nov: Buy at 61.70-61.72 targeting 61.90 with stop loss at 61.58 CMP 61.83
BPINR Nov: Res is seen at 72.60-72.65 Support is seen at 72.30, 72.15

India Stock market news, Online share trading

Latest Research
- IVRCL Infrastructure - weak quarter; strong order book the only silver
lining; Buy
- Koutons Retail - disappointment yet again; downgrade to Reduce
- MARG - Mixed bag; port PAT higher, EPC lower; Buy
- Pantaloon Retail - taking a breather; Buy
- FMCG – Indian FMCG-hopes and concerns
- Real Estate - festival season a cracker, but Mumbai fails to join the party
- Bond Vector - Sentiment remains weak as tight liquidity weighs
Analyst comments
- Dish TV– Company Update; Buy

Share market updates

US Stock markets witnessed a listless trading session on Wednesday as traders were cautious due to continued concerns over the financial crisis and led by mixed economic readings on Inflation and Housing. Most stock markets in Asia region are trading with a positive bias on Thursday.

Back home, The NSE Nifty is expected to open in a constricted range amidst lack of any strong global data. For any upside momentum, the Nifty should sustain above its first Resistance at 6012 while the higher target for the day is seen at 6036. The Critical Support level for today’s trade is seen at 5966 wherein a fall below this may trigger further downside movement towards the first Support at 5940. Below this level, some position unwinding could drag the index towards the Major Support at 5915.

AXIS BANK: Bank, unlisted Enam Securities to merge their investment banking
and equity operations, in an all-stock deal valued at 20.67 bln rupees.

BHARTI AIRTEL: May ink a software deal with US-based Connectiva; the US co
provides software to mobile companies to plug revenue leakages and track
consumer preferences.

CAIRN INDIA: Parent Cairn Energy says it hopes to complete the Vedanta deal
by March.

CIPLA: May be close to supply agreement with Pfizer.

COAL INDIA: Company's 30 bln rupee plan to wash 111 mln tn of coal by 2017
may run into environmental trouble.

DISH TV: Says its subscriber base has crossed 9 mln.
DR REDDY'S: Has received tentative approval from the US Food
and Drug Administration for the generic version of Sanofi-Aventis' anti-allergy
drug Allegra-D extended release tablets.

JSW STEEL: JSW Severfield Structures, a joint venture between JSW STEEL and
Serverfield Reeve Structures plans to invest three bln rupees for expanding
capacity at Vijaynagar unit.

M&M: To sign Ssangyong deal next week. Likely to use Reva technology in all cars.

MANAPPURAM GENERAL: To raise 10 bln rupees via qualified institutional
placement of shares at 168 rupees per share.
Rcom: Says did not own Swan stake when Swan won the 2G
licence. .

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Currency market update

The USDINR ended firm on Monday highest level since end September, breaching the Rs. 45 per dollar mark. The spot pair opened at 44.85, and edged higher from thereon to end the first trading day of the week at 45.24, up almost 43 paisa or 0.95%. In the futures market, the Nov contract hit an intraday high at 45.36 and registered a low at around 45.05 during the day and ended at 45.34, up 39 paisa or 0.88% as compared to previous close at 44.94. However, domestic stocks reversed early losses and gained in late trading hour on improved trade data and easing of inflation in October 2010

The WPI based YoY inflation stood at 8.58 %( provisional) in October 2010 against 8.62 %( provisional) in the previous month and 1.48 %during the corresponding month of the previous year.

Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor said inflation remains high in the nation despite a good monsoon, driven by increases in food prices. The central bank will take a “wait-and-watch” approach to managing interest rates in the immediate future, he said. A liquidity deficit in the financial system, while desirable, has gone too far in recent weeks and may cause excessive volatility in short-term rates, he added.

The market is now optimistic of pause in rate hike cycle of RBI on softening inflation along with weak IIP numbers. India’s IIP growth slipped to a 16-month low of 4.4% in September, compared to 8.2% in the corresponding month a year ago.

There may be some moderating in the capital flows on expected pause in the tightening cycle and the Indian rupee should see some decline against the US dollar.

USDINR Nov: The market is expected to stay firm above the 45.15 levels. The immediate resistance is seen at 45.45-45.50 and above that 45.70. We recommend buying on USDINR for the day. One can look for buying in the range of 45.15-45.20 levels today.

EURINR Nov: The market is expected to stay range bound for the day. Gains in the USDINR may limit decline. The resistance is seen at 61.85-61.90 levels and support is seen at 61.50 and then 61.35 levels. We recommend selling on a pullback towards 61.90 levels.

Exchange Holidays 2010



Friday New Year YES YES NO *** NO NO** NO NO
2 14-Jan-10 Thursday Uttarayan NO NO NO YES NO NO NO
3 26-Jan-10 Tuesday Republic Day YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
4 12-Feb-10 Friday Mahashivratri YES YES YES** YES** YES** YES YES
5 27-Feb-10 Saturday Id- e- Milad NO NO NO NO NO YES YES
6 1-Mar-10 Monday Holi YES YES YES** YES** YES** YES YES
7 16-Mar-10 Tuesday Gudi Padwa NO NO NO NO NO YES YES
8 24-Mar-10 Wednesday Ram Navmi YES YES NO NO NO YES YES
9 1-Apr-10 Thursday Annual Bank Closing NO NO NO NO NO YES YES
10 28-Mar-10 Sunday Mahavir Jayanti YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
11 2-Apr-10 Friday Good Friday YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
12 14-Apr-10 Wednesday Ambedkar Jayanti YES YES YES** YES** YES** YES YES
13 1-May-10 Saturday May day YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
14 27-May-10 Thursday Buddha Purnima NO NO YES** YES** YES** YES YES
15 15-Aug-10 Sunday Independence Day YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
16 19-Aug-10 Thursday Parsi New Year NO NO NO NO NO YES YES
17 10-Sep-10 Friday Ramzan ID YES YES YES** YES** YES** YES YES
18 11-Sep-10 Saturday Ganesh Chturthi YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
19 30-Sep-10 Thursday Half Yearly Bank closing NO NO NO NO NO YES YES
20 2-Oct-10 Saturday Gandhi Jayanti YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
21 17-Oct-10 Sunday Dasara YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
22 5-Nov-10 Friday Laxmi Pooja * YES* YES* YES* YES* YES* YES* YES*
23 7-Nov-10 Sunday Bhau Bhij YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
24 17-Nov-10 Wednesday Bakri ID YES YES YES** YES** YES** YES YES
25 21-Nov-10 Sunday Gurunanak Jayanti YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
26 17-Dec-10 Friday Moharum YES YES NO NO NO YES YES
27 25-Dec-10 Saturday Christmas YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
* Muharat Trading
** Evening Trade
*** No Evening Trade

Monday, November 15, 2010

Ispat Industries tumbles on higher quarterly net loss

The stock had underperformed the market over the past one month till 12 November 2010, falling 10.18% compared with the Sensex's 0.23% fall. However, it outperformed the market in past one quarter, rising 14.37% as against 11.52% rise in the Sensex

The mid-cap steel maker has an equity capital of Rs 1222.44 crore. Face value per share is Rs 10.

Ispat Industries' net sales rose 6% to Rs 2154.97 crore in the quarter ended September 2010 over in the quarter ended September 2009. The result was announced after market hours on Friday, 12 November 2010.

Currency market update

The softness of IIP numbers and fresh EU problems is changing the short term direction of the Indian rupee. The Indian rupee, an emerging nation currency, has hitherto been appreciating on interest rate differential and rise in capital account inflows.

We have been under a weak current account on rise in imports and moderate growth in the export sector, due to weakness in the developed market.

India’s current account deficit is near to 3%, rising from almost 1.5% in 2007. As per RBI, the current account deficit would be in the region of 3-3.5 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) this financial year. During the first quarter of the current financial year, the current account deficit has more than trebled to $13.7 billion, while the capital account surplus has risen to $17.5 billion.

The rupee outlook from the domestic front depends on the further developments in the capital account. It largely depends on further quantitative easing by the US or UK.

A big issue for most of the emerging nations which has seen abrupt capital inflows from past few quarters is its sustainability. When the developed market recovers and start looking at interest rate hike, what will be the impact on the capital inflows?

We believe few hot money will be routing back to the DM’s and will put pressure on the emerging currencies and cause threat to different asset classes. Since January, India’s equity and bond markets have attracted a record $33.8 billion in foreign funds. However, during the same period foreign direct investment – which tends to be more long-term than inflows into the stock market – dropped 35 per cent, down to Rs 63,700 crore ($14.4 billion) from Rs 97,600 crore.

From the RBI monetary policy side, we see a pause in the rate hike cycle by the RBI despite inflation is not their comfort zone. Weak IIP numbers is expected to keep the Central bank to take backseat. Policy interest rates have been raised five times since the beginning of March 2010, raising the repo rate by 125 basis points and the reverse repo rate by 175 basis points.

Another issue for inflation is that, if it doesn’t moderate will cause in competitiveness of the export sector putting pressure on the current account.

From the global fundamentals, the fresh public finance issues from the PIGGS nations is expected to pull down gains of high yielding currencies. Investors in the DM may look for US dollar as flight of despite weak fundamentals.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Powergrid FPD retail subscription



No.of shares offered/reserved

No. of shares bid for

No. of times of total meant for the category


Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)





Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)



Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)



Mutual Funds






Non Institutional Investors








Individuals (Other than RIIs)






Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)





Cut Off



Price Bids



Employee Reservation





Cut Off



Price Bids


These are control totals




Thursday, November 11, 2010

Currency Markets Today

The Indian rupee advanced against the US dollar during the later session on Wednesday while local stocks remained weak. The USDINR spot closed down at 44.30, unchanged from previous session. The Nov future USDINR closed at 44.52, up by 1 paisa. The pair posted a low of 44.4475 before a mild pullback at the closing bell.

The Euro dropped further against the Indian rupee on Wednesday on weak guidance from the EURUSD. The EURUSD fell below the 1.80 and was stable below the 1.80 mark during the mid European session The EURINR for Nov expiry on Indian exchanges fell as much as 1% to close at 61.3025. The GBPINR Nov futures fell to 71.11, but witnessed late hour recovery on pullback in the GBPUSD after the UK quarterly inflation report. The GBPINR Nov contract closed at 71.49, still down 35 paisa.

USDINR Nov: The market is expected to stay weak below the stiff resistance area of 44.60-44.65. The immediate support level is seen at 44.40 and below that it may fell towards 44.25 levels. Trend remains sideways for the session, while we recommend staying on the selling side for intraday.

EURINR Nov: The market has a resistance at 61.45 and above that we can expect a pullback towards 61.60 levels. The support is seen at 61.15-61.20 levels. Trend remains weak and we see some recovery today. Selling is recommended on a pullback towards 61.60-61.65 range.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Forex market research

The rally of the EURUSD which started from the 1.18 level has halted at the resistance mark of 1.43.The market is now turning lower posting a high of 1.4282 and currently trading above the 1.38 mark.

The market is expected to be under pressure with immediate support at 1.3696 (20th Oct, 2010 low and also 23.6% retracement of the intermediate rally) and break below the same may push rates lower towards the support pegged at 1.3334 (top of August 06, 2010).On the higher side 1.4110-1.4150 will mark as resistance for the correction.

As per our analysis the EURUSD should decline towards 1.33 marks in the short term.

Implication to the USDINR: The USDINR generally gains tracking the EURUSD decline. While the Indian rupee has domestic fundamental which has been dominant from past few weeks will keep major gains in check. We see recovery towards 44.80-45.00 on decline in the EURUSD to 1.3300. The downside is seen limited at 44.20-44.30 in the short term

USDINR Nov trading Strategy: Buy the future contract at 44.20-44.10 targeting 44.80-45.00 with stop loss below 43.80

Implication to the EURINR: The EURINR cross is derived from EURUSD and USDINR move. When the EURUSD declines to 1.33 and the USDINR reaches at 45.00 the EURINR should come down towards 59.85. In a conservative view, we expect the EURINR to test 60.20-60.30 mark.

Trading Strategy: EURINR Nov: Sell 50% at 61.55-61.60 and remaining 50% at 61.80-61.90 targeting 60.00. Preferred stop loss at 62.30.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Power Grid FPO details

Power Grid Corporation of India Limited - FPO

Issue Opens:


Issue Closes: (For QIBs)


Issue Closes: (For Ret & NIBs)


Price Band:

*Rs. 85 90 ( 5% to the offer price adjusted at the time of allotment to Retail and Employee Category )

Bid Lot:

65 Equity Shares

Cheque Details:

“Escrow Account– Powergrid– FPO - R”

No. of Shares

Price Per Share (Rs.)

Cheque Amount (Rs.)