Saturday, June 6, 2009

How long will recession last?

Before we start debating on when this economic recession is likely to end, we need to understand that historically an economic recession follows a period of 6 to 10 years of economic boom. Economic recessions usually last anywhere between 1 to 3 years. Keeping this in mind, it seems likely that we are only in the early stages yet and hence we can expect at least 6 to 12 more months of economic recession in India. Though, it is impossible to accurately estimate when the current recession in India will come to an end, certain indicators are likely to indicate the end of the recession a month or two before it happens. The main indicator to look for would be the performance of the US economy. History stands testimony to the fact that, during a global economic recession, economic superpowers such as the US and the UK are likely to come out of the recession at least a quarter or two before developing countries such as India and China do.

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