Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Commodity Futures Price Outlook

Commodity Market review
Spices complex on National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange ended dropped yesterday on
subdued demand. Widely traded pepper June closed at 16708 down by 216 rupees, Jeera June
contract slipped to 12,217 from 12292 rupees on Friday. Turmeric June finished 14,311 rupees
down by 3.37%.
Sluggish overseas demand coupled with weakness in spot market push down pepper price in
NCDEX future counters. Spot prices dropped by 100 rupees to 16200 rupees in Kochi; a major
trading hub in Kerala, and daily arrivals increased to 55Mt from 40Mt on Saturday. Overseas
demand for the Indian origin pepper is weak because prices are at premium compared with other
competing countries in the international market. Indian parity in the international market out
priced above $3,900 a tonne. Overseas traders were eyeing on US FDA decision on black pepper
import to America from Vietnam.
Jeera futures softened on tepid overseas demand and estimates of higher output. Factors like
normal output in Syria, low overseas demand weighing on sentiment. Production in 2010 is seen
rising to 2.9 million bags of 60 kg each from 2.7 million bags in 2009. Spot rates in Unjha, a key
spot market in Gujarat, dropped 19.5 rupees to end at 12,552 rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric futures on NCDEX registered a fall 3 percent in afternoon trade on Monday triggered by aggressive profit-taking by traders after prices were witnessed to grow more than 36 percent
since the beginning of April till Saturday. Production in 2010 is posted to rise to 2.9 million bags
of 60 kg each from 2.7 million bags in 2009. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in Andhra
Pradesh, the price is reported to have squeezed 25 rupees to 14,805 rupees per 100 kg
Market Review
Chana futures ended flat on steady spot prices and lack of fresh triggers in the market. The June
NCDEX contract moved in narrow range of Rs2166-2187 and closed at Rs2179 levels. Spot prices
remained steady at Rs2125 per quintal. Market is also cautious ahead of expiry of May contract
and monsoon reports.
Demand for chana is expected to improve with early onset of monsoon and better monsoon
forecasts for this year. Stockiest and farmers are not willing to sell at lower levels on anticipation
of some recovery during June – August. However, huge stocks of chana in the spot markets may
restrict major rise in prices in medium term. Spot prices are quoting steady at Rs2125 per quintal at Delhi. For the day ahead, chana futures are expected to remain in range bound on lack of major triggers.

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